Bad Math

Hello!

I've had a few years now (off and on) of adopting a county in the state, making monthly visits, and seeing what I can see for the year. An end goal for this is often to see 150 species for the year, something I've done now in 12 counties in the state: King (2010), Thurston (2012), Island (2013), Kittitas (2014), Mason (2015), Chelan (2016), Yakima (2017), Snohomish (2017), Lewis (2018), Pierce (2019), Douglas (2021), and Klickitat (2022). 

I've enjoyed this immensely more than running all over the state each year to add a few birds here, a few birds there, eventually aiming for 150, and perhaps 175 for my county life lists in all 39 counties in Washington State. Diving deep and having a yearly focus has really kept things fun. 

However, I've done the math on this. 28 counties to go, which would put me at . . . 78?? By the time I'm 78, I could have had a 150 year in every county in the state. And knock-on-wood, I'd love to make it there, but why not add a *little* efficiency to the process?

So, the goal for 2023: See 150 species for the year in Skamania, Wahkiakum, Cowlitz, and Clark counties.

lol I hope you're seeing the meaning of "Bad Math" now! 

To be clear, I've done multiple counties in a year once before: Snohomish and Yakima back in 2017. This was: 

• challenging! These counties are quite far apart from each other.
• easy! These counties are both heavily birded, large, and full of varied habitats.
• disappointing! 

For some perspective: these counties are in the
bottom corner: Wahkiakum is the 37th largest 
county in the state, Cowlitz 28th, Skamania 24th, 
and Clark 35th.

That last one is the most important piece for all of this. I am so used to diving deeply into a county for a year. In the end, I feel like I've done all of the roads, hit all the diners, and seen an absolute surfeit of birds. I left much of Yakima and Snohomish unexplored, and still have a lot of fairly common birds I've not seen in both counties. It just wasn't the same feeling that I got from many of these other county years. 

So, there's a bit of caution that was applied here, but I think I'll be okay. Here's my thinking. These counties are quite close to each other, quite small (although Skamania is nearly as large as the other three combined), not as heavily birded, and a little less diverse in terms of habitat. 

I think it will be fun. :) Do I think it will be possible?? Uh. . . 

Clark County

Code 1 birds (birds that are hard not to find): 114

Code 2 birds (birds that are not hard to find): 37. . . which already would put me at 151.

Code 3 birds (birds that are hard to find. . . but you can find them): 52

Code 4 birds (birds that are found sometimes): 43

Code 5 birds (1-5 sightings historically): 83

That many species packed into a small county that has the largest population of any of the four? This will be the easy county. I might not dig in as deeply to find every bird that I can find in Clark County this year, but I still may find my way to nearly every corner by the end of the year. 'Cause there's just not that many corners, relatively speaking!

The bigger goal here will be to be a little strategic about it, adding life birds so that I can move the life list to 175. No small feat, as I've only seen four birds that are at a code 3 or higher! It may be a year for chasing birds in Clark as I'm going from A to B. 

Cowlitz County

Code 1 birds: 95

Code 2 birds: 47

Code 3 birds: 34

Code 4 birds: 45

Code 5 birds: 65

A little closer than Clark, a little less birdy (and less birded) than Clark, and a little bit larger. This will be a little tougher! In a normal "big" year as I've been doing (monthly visits, and full weekends in a county), I have been able to run some fairly consistent math: all of the code 1 birds (95); almost all of the code 2 birds (45 + 95 = 140); 80 percent of the code 3 birds (22 + 140 = 162); and one or two higher coded birds each month (16 + 162 = 178). 

I'll need to put in more effort here than in Clark, but this should still be doable! With 10 higher coded birds already on my life list, 175 should also be reachable with some strategery.

Skamania County

Code 1 birds: 101

Code 2 birds: 26

Code 3 birds: 42

Code 4 birds: 42

Code 5 birds: 84

The highest total ever reported here in a year was 188 species by Wilson Cady in 2012. I want to say a couple of other folks have broken 150 as well. If nothing else, the fact that Wilson lives there, and that he's about as avid as they come, should aid me in this quest. By the math above, (again, assuming a focused county effort), I'd normally be able to get 101 + 25 + 32 + 16 = 174. 

That only looks slightly harder than Cowlitz, but it is farther to Skamania for me than any county. It is the largest of these counties. It also stands to reason that there will be some hiking involved to even get to some of the higher coded birds. There are sightings of Spruce Grouse, American Three-toed Woodpecker, and even Boreal Owl up in the high parts of this county. 150 should be doable. 175 for my life list? Maybe, but only if I lace up those hiking boots.

Wahkiakum County

Code 1 birds: 73 (ouch)

Code 2 birds: 51

Code 3 birds: 44

Code 4 birds: 33

Code 5 birds: 60

Okay, optimism. How we doin'? 73 + 50 + 33 + 16 = 169. This should be the toughest county in some regards. On the one hand, it's a small county. On the other hand, it's a small county. So, while there's not a ton of variety here, there's also not a ton of land area to visit to get these totals! The big fun here will be the inevitable trip(s?) by kayak to the islands in the Columbia, where you can find some prairie species like Horned Lark and American Pipit far more easily than anywhere else in the county. 150 is still going to be a squeak. 175 for my life list. . . If I *do* reach that number, it will be courtesy of a kayak.

So. Chasing, strategery, hiking boots, and kayaks. What more could one want sitting in front of them in the new year?